Pulling a rabbit out of a hat
Back in July, I wrote a blog predicting that Trump would lose the 2020 Presidential election-
I based my prediction solely on data taken from public sources. Today, I am even more confident than I was before. The same arrows are still pointing in the same direction, and for all the reasons I gave back then, and more.
As before, I’m not relying on my opinions or feelings, I’ve been looking at the polls and research. In particular, I looked for evidence that would show a repeat of 2016. At this time four years ago, Clinton had a 4 point lead. Today, Biden has a lead that is twice that. I wanted to find out if there was a possibility that Trump could once again pull a rabbit out of a hat. It sure doesn’t seem so. Five-Thirty-Eight, Nate Silver’s organization, ran a computer simulation 100 times, predicting different outcomes based on available surveys. Here are the results:
Post convention boost
As the election approaches, Trump should have gotten at least a 4 point lift from the convention. No such luck. His lift in the polls was less than 2 points and has fallen from that. The “lift” was in effect a negative because it did not meet expectations. In the battleground states, the latest polling has Biden leading in 10 of 14 states. It’s worth noting that Trump won 10 of those states in 2016. The consensus poll of polls, has Biden leading Trump 50% to 42%. This is, of course, after Trump’s post convention bump.
Losers and Suckers
I continued looking for more evidence that Trump would turn the tide. If anything, his most recent debacles, insulting those in the military “losers and suckers”, and the Woodward interview, are sure to make the election even harder for Trump. Reminds me of the saying: “Whenever you are in a hole, the first rule is to stop digging.” Of course, the argument is that Trump only needs to win the electoral election not the popular election, just as in 2016. Correct. So let’s look how that plays out.
Predicting the outcome
Wait for the Debates
Exclusive: More Americans predict Trump will win the presidential debates than Biden, – USA TODAY
But only 10% of those who voted in 2016 said they had definitely made up their minds “during or just after” the debates. Almost two-thirds said they had decided around the time of the conventions or even before. Conclusion: The election results will not be affected by the debates.
Rely on the Polls and Statistical Models
- The Rasmussen poll, not the best, but one of Trump’s favorites, has Biden by +8.
- THE ECONOMIST, an international newspaper based in London that has their own research division, reports, “Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.”
There’s less than two months before the election.
I don’t see that things are going to change dramatically in the next two months. but here are a couple of scenarios.
Trump will continue to run for office like a wild boar, saying and doing the wrong things while he loses more and more voters. All the while, the live events will work against him as he looks like a fool talking to crowds of crazed followers in the midst of a Pandemic. Wounded by his own self-destructive comments from the Woodward interview, and his handling of the pandemic, Trump will suffer an embarrassing defeat.
The in-person voting results will favor Trump, and he will look like the winner on election day. As the mail-in votes are counted, it will become apparent the Biden is the winner. Trump will cry fraud. A mess ensues, but our election process will be upheld, and Biden will become the 48th President of the United States.