TRUMP WILL LOSE POPULAR VOTE IN 2020 – NBC News
TRUMP WILL LOSE 2020 ELECTION BY A LANDSLIDE – Daily Mail
TRUMP WILL LOSE IN 2020 – NY Times
PANDEMIC SURGE DAMAGES TRUMP, BOOSTING BIDEN’S WHITE HOUSE BID – ABC News
TRUMP KNOWS HE’S GOING TO LOSE – The Washington Post
STUDENTS WHO PREDICTED A TRUMP WIN THREE MONTHS AGO NOW THINK HE’LL LOSE – Newsweek
TRUMP ADMITS IT: HE’S LOSING – Politico
I know, I know…everybody predicted that Trump would lose in 2016, but look what happened. The truth is Trump was never under siege this way in 2016.
Here are the facts:
*87% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going. At the same time only 17% are proud of the country’s condition, and only 39% approve of Trump’s handling his job as president. As a result, Biden leads Trump in the polls by 10 points 54-44. This is significantly higher than Clinton’s lead at the same time in 2016. Moreover, Trump’s trend line is heading the wrong way!
But let’s look at Trump’s base. “White evangelical Protestants and older white men with less than a college education- are rock-solid.” How about white working-class women? They supported Trump by a whopping 27 point margin in 2016. The latest Quinnipiac survey shows that 47% of non-college-educated white women would “definitely not” vote for trump vs 43% who would. That’s a huge change!
While holding his own in his base of older white working class voters, Trump is losing among working class white voters under 40. Think about this. White American men under 40 (and women according to a separate poll) have lost faith in Trump.
Moreover, the all important geographic data is also working against Trump. He is shown losing where he most needs to win: the battleground states. A new Oxford Economics model shows Biden flipping Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. In addition, the same research shows Trump losing in Ohio, Iowa, and Missouri. (I’ve got my own concerns on Iowa and Missouri).
Just to reassure myself, and verify that I didn’t just grab Trump’s worst polls, I went to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website. He analyses and posts all the major polls. While noting that there is one poll that has Biden winning by 15 points, FiveThirtyEight has Biden currently leading Trump by an average of 9.1 percentage points. That’s very consistent with last week and last months numbers.
Silver’s key takeaway is not only that Biden is outpolling Trump overall, but he is and has been outpolling Trump in most swing states. If the election were today Biden would win, and win where it counts electorally.
Let’s look at the reasons for this. How do you think the economy is doing? How well is Trump doing in handling the coronavirus? Trump’s recent press conference speeches have been downright embarrassing.
Think of Trump’s strong points in campaigning. Big events, with lots of cheering fans, and lots of hoopla. How likely are we going to see stadiums full of Trump fans between now and election day? Then compare this with Trump’s lackluster and stumbling White House speeches and press conferences.
It’s hard to imagine a turnaround for Trump between now and November. All the Democrats need to do is keep Biden on track, keep the Russians out of our election, and sit back and watch Trump self-destruct.